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Energy price cap predictions

Take the mystery out of energy prices!

Keep up to date with our price cap forecasts to understand if you should stay on a variable tariff that tracks the cap, or switch to a fixed tariff.

Take control of your energy

As Britain’s biggest generator of zero carbon energy(1), we've a deep understanding of the energy market. This allows us to predict future changes to the Ofgem energy price cap, or the Default Tariff Cap, as it’s also known.  

Every Tuesday we update this page with new information about changes to the cap on energy prices, and how it affects your energy tariff choices.

What's the price cap?

The energy cap broken down: 

  • It controls the cost that providers can charge customers for their energy 

  • Ofgem, the government’s regulator, change the price cap every three months to reflect global changes in the wholesale costs of energy, and other factors 

  • As energy providers have already paid for the energy they sell, the price cap actually reflects the costs from three months ago, rather than wholesale costs now 

So, to keep on top of your energy bills, it’s important to think about the future costs of energy.

Ofgem’s current price cap

The current price cap lasts from 1 April to 30 June 2024 and is set at £1,690 for the year. This is the national average price paid by a typical domestic customer paying by Direct Debit(2). Don’t forget, it’s the standing charge and cost per unit of energy that Ofgem set, not your bill. Your energy bill will vary depending on how much energy you use.  

What's changed since last week?

Wholesale market prices for electricity and gas have decreased since last week.

The decreases this week have been larger than we have seen in the last few weeks. This is due to a reduced concern about the availability of future gas supplies; leading to a fall in gas and electricity wholesale prices.

Our price cap predictions(3)

Updated 11 June 2024

Quarter

1 Apr - 30 Jun 24 

1 Jul - 30 Sep 24 

1 Oct - 31 Dec 24

1 Jan - 31 Mar 25 

1 Apr - 30 Jun 25 

1 Jul - 30 Sep 25
Annual bill(2)  £1,690  £1,568 £1,698 £1,711 £1,706

 

£1,669

 

Prediction confidence  Certain (published) Certain (published) Medium Low Very low Lowest

2024

The price cap for July to September is confirmed at £1,568. We predict the cap will rise again for October to December to £1,698. The prediction for October to December is based on latest wholesale energy market prices but is subject to market changes. 

2025

For January to March it’s a little less clear, as market prices have a longer time period to change. We’re forecasting another price cap increase to around £1,711. This is due to the price of gas and electricity going up in the first three months of the year, when demand is highest due to colder weather.

From April 2025 there's less certainty, as several non-energy costs covering the wider energy system will change. Non-energy costs include paying for transmission and distribution networks, low carbon subsidies, and balancing electricity demand and supply. 

What our predictions mean for you

Based on our current predictions, a one-year fixed tariff that costs £1,686 or less annually, could save you money, rather than staying on a variable tariff that tracks the cap over the year. 

Get a quote to see if our fixed tariffs can save you money!

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