Energy price cap predictions
What could happen to energy prices next?
Our latest price cap forecast suggests energy prices will likely rise again in January and April next year, before easing later in the year.
But remember: your bill depends on how much energy you use.
What do the October changes mean for you?
Ofgem has confirmed that the energy price cap increased by 4% from 1 October 2026.
The new cap means a typical household paying by Direct Debit on a standard variable tariff would pay around £1,723 a year if their usage stayed the same. The increase is largely being driven by higher wholesale gas prices.
Looking to save against the price cap?
Based on our current predictions, a one-year fixed tariff that costs £2,038 or less annually could save you money, rather than staying on a variable tariff that tracks the cap over the year. This is based on the new consumption levels from July 2026 (2,500 kWh of electricity and 9,500 kWh of gas).
From 1 October 2026, the energy regulator has confirmed that based on the average consumption levels (2,500 kWh of electricity and 9,500 kWh of gas), the cost will be £1,723.
View our prediction graph to see how our tariffs compare to the price cap.
Fix prices for peace of mind
Beat the cap by £50 a year(1)
Are energy prices going up or down?
Wholesale prices have risen over the past week, driven by geopolitical uncertainty and lower-than-expected EU gas storage levels. Market conditions remain volatile, meaning prices could move in either direction as the news develops, with potential to impact future price cap forecasts.
How are energy prices predicted to change?
Ofgem set the Q4 2026 price cap at £1,723 on 26 August. Our current forecast indicates the cap will increase in Q1 2027, primarily due to higher wholesale energy costs linked to geopolitical events in the Middle East. However, forecasts for the next cap period and beyond remain uncertain because the price cap methodology is calculated using reference wholesale prices observed closer to the cap period.
So, to stay on top of your energy bills, it’s important to consider future energy costs.
The energy price cap broken down:
- It controls the cost that providers can charge customers for their energy
- Ofgem, the government’s regulator, change the price cap every three months to reflect global changes in the wholesale costs of energy, and other factors
- As energy providers have already paid for the energy they sell, the price cap actually reflects the costs from three months ago, rather than wholesale costs now
Could you pay less than Ofgem's price cap?
Based on our current predictions, a one-year fixed tariff that costs £1,952 or less annually could save you money, rather than staying on a variable tariff that tracks the cap over the year.
*See annual bill figures(2)
Our price cap predictions
Price cap predictions using Ofgem's current typical consumption figures(2)
Tables last updated: 16 October 2026Why confidence changes
Forecasting gets harder the further into the future we look, because wholesale energy prices change daily.
Step 1
Get a quick energy quote, choose your tariff and buy online
Step 2
We'll sort a switch date with your current energy supplier, so you don't need to worry
Step 3
We'll get in touch for your electricity and gas meter reading(s)
Step 4
We'll let you know when you've successfully switched
Our tariffs
If you're on a fixed energy tariff, the changes to the price cap won't affect your energy prices. If you're a variable energy tariff then the price cap prices will affect how much you pay for your energy.
We also offer tariffs for solar panels, air source heat pumps and electric vehicles. Plus our FreePhase tariff for customers who can flex their electricity usage outside of peak times between 4 and 7pm daily.
Simply Fixed
- Locking in your prices means no nasty surprises
- Fix your rates and standing charges
- Exit fees apply
- Fixed tariff end date
- Get access to exclusive rewards, including free electricity, 12 months of tastecard membership, rewards plus more through Flextras
Simply Tracker
Why do energy prices go up and down?
As a country, we don't make all the energy we actually need.
This means we have to buy energy from global wholesale markets, where all countries compete to buy energy. When it comes to buying energy, there are many factors that affect the wholesale prices, for example:
- Geopolitical instability - this is one of the key reasons for energy prices rising - we saw this when Russia first invaded the Ukraine, and conflicts elsewhere in the world, also affect energy prices
- Power plant outages - rising temperature has been blamed for certain power plants choosing to reduce production due to safety concerns, and also planned power outages can affect energy prices
- Reduced renewables production - similarly, low winds and power outages have increased the cost of gas production - with renewable energy linked to gas prices, this has increased the cost of renewable energy prices
- Colder weather - every year, when the weather gets cold and we have longer, darker evenings, we use more energy - this demand for supply pushes wholesale prices up
These are just a few of the reasons why energy prices fluctuate, and one of the main reasons we're proud to be Britain's biggest generator of zero carbon electricity(5) and doing everything we can to help build Britain's energy infrastructure.
What we’re doing to help bring down energy prices
- We’re investing all our profits into building more renewable and nuclear power to help reduce Britain’s reliance on buying gas and electricity in from around the globe
We’re continuing to call for government to introduce a social tariff for those on low incomes
Helping our customers earn free electricity by shifting their usage away from peak times in our free electricity challenges
Offering tariffs priced below the price cap
How else to cut energy costs
We're all looking for ways to save energy and money in our homes! Here're some simple, but effective ways you can easily make a difference to your monthly bill:
- Switch off at the wall! The Energy Saving Trust estimates switching devices off standby could save you £45 in GB and £55 in NI a year!
- Switch lights off when you leave a room! Did you know, the typical household could save almost £7 a year in GB and £9 in NI, just by switching the lights off?
- Only boil what you need! If you're making a cup of tea, only boil the amount of water you're going to drink to save energy and money. You can save around £10 a year in GB and £12 in NI.
- Are you on the right tariff? It's worth checking you're on a tariff that matches your household's energy needs. If you need a little more advice, try reading our blog How to choose the best energy tariffs.
For more tips and tricks, read our blog Ways to save energy at home: the facts and the fiction.
