Energy price cap predictions
What could happen to energy prices next?
Our latest price cap forecast suggests energy prices could increase in October before easing later in the year.
But remember: your bill depends on how much energy you use.
What do the July changes mean for you?
Ofgem has changed the way a "typical household" is measured. This means annual quoted bill figures may look lower than before, even if energy prices have increased.
| What's changed? | What it means to you |
|---|---|
| New Ofgem average household usage figures are used for quoting | Your bills won't change, but when you get a quote, using the average annual bill figures may make it look lower. Using your actual usage helps you get a more accurate quote. |
| Price cap based on average usage change | Price cap based on Ofgem's average usage before 1 July: £1,862 Price cap based on Ofgem's average usage after 1 July: £1,663 Please note prices have not gone down. |
| Unit rates under the July price cap increased | Customers still on Standard Variable, Deemed, or tracker tariffs will see this increase from 1 July. |
Looking to save against the price cap?
Based on our current predictions, a one-year fixed tariff costing £1,691 or less annually could save you money, rather than staying on a variable tariff that tracks the cap over the year. This is based on the new consumption levels from July 2026 (2.5MWh for electricity and 9.5MWh for gas).
From 1 July 2026, the energy regulator has updated its definition of a 'typical' household by reducing the average annual energy consumption it uses in its calculations. Using these new average consumption levels (2,500 kWh of electricity and 9,500 kWh of gas), the equivalent annual cost is £1,663.
View our prediction graph to see how our tariffs compare to the price cap.
Beat the cap by £50 a year(1)
Fix prices for peace of mind
Are energy prices going up or down?
From Q4 2026 onwards, wholesale prices have increased since last week. There is potential for further market price changes in a short space of time as news develops which would impact these later price cap periods.
How are energy prices predicted to change in 2026?
On 27th May, Ofgem announced the price cap for Q3 2026 at £1,663 using the new typical consumption levels (or at £1,862 using the previous typical consumption levels). Future cap periods, for Q4 2026 and beyond, have low certainty as costs are not confirmed this far in advance.
So, to stay on top of your energy bills, it’s important to consider future energy costs.
The energy price cap broken down:
- It controls the cost that providers can charge customers for their energy
- Ofgem, the government’s regulator, change the price cap every three months to reflect global changes in the wholesale costs of energy, and other factors
- As energy providers have already paid for the energy they sell, the price cap actually reflects the costs from three months ago, rather than wholesale costs now
Could you pay less than Ofgem's price cap?
*See annual bill figures(2)
Our price cap predictions
Price cap predictions using Ofgem's current typical consumption figures(2)
Tables last updated: 08 July 2026Why confidence changes
Forecasting gets harder the further into the future we look, because wholesale energy prices change daily.
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Our tariffs
We offer two classic types of gas and electricity energy tariffs: fixed or our tracker tariff which follows Ofgem's price cap, but is always priced lower than the cap.
If you're on a fixed energy tariff, the changes to the price cap won't affect your energy prices. If you're a variable energy tariff then the price cap prices will affect how much you pay for your energy.
We also offer tariffs for solar panels, air source heat pumps and electric vehicles. Plus our FreePhase tariff for customers who can flex their electricity usage outside of peak times between 4 and 7pm daily.
Simply Tracker
- Save up to £50 a year when you choose both fuels, or £25 with one(1)
- Guaranteed discounted standing charge for the time of your tariff(3)
- Your prices may rise and fall every three months in line with Ofgem's price cap(4)
- Fixed tariff end date
- Exit fees apply
- Earn free electricity with our Sunday Saver challenges!(5)
Get a smart meter installed at no extra cost!
Simply Fixed
- Locking in your prices means no nasty surprises
- Fix your rates and standing charges
- Exit fees apply
- Fixed tariff end date
- Earn free electricity with our Sunday Saver challenges!(5)
Get a smart meter installed at no extra cost!
Why do energy prices go up and down?
As a country, we don't make all the energy we actually need.
This means we have to buy energy from global wholesale markets, where all countries compete to buy energy. When it comes to buying energy, there are many factors that affect the wholesale prices, for example:
- Geopolitical instability - this is one of the key reasons for energy prices rising - we saw this when Russia first invaded the Ukraine, and conflicts elsewhere in the world, also affect energy prices
- Power plant outages - rising temperature has been blamed for certain power plants choosing to reduce production due to safety concerns, and also planned power outages can affect energy prices
- Reduced renewables production - similarly, low winds and power outages have increased the cost of gas production - with renewable energy linked to gas prices, this has increased the cost of renewable energy prices
- Colder weather - every year, when the weather gets cold and we have longer, darker evenings, we use more energy - this demand for supply pushes wholesale prices up
These are just a few of the reasons why energy prices fluctuate, and one of the main reasons we're proud to be Britain's biggest generator of zero carbon electricity(6) and doing everything we can to help build Britain's energy infrastructure.
What we’re doing to help bring down energy prices
- We’re investing all our profits into building more renewable and nuclear power to help reduce Britain’s reliance on buying gas and electricity in from around the globe
We’re continuing to call for government to introduce a social tariff for those on low incomes
Helping our customers earn free electricity on Sundays by shifting their usage away from peak times
Offering tariffs priced below the price cap: beat the cap by £50 a year with our tracker tariff!(1)
How else to cut energy costs
We're all looking for ways to save energy and money in our homes! Here're some simple, but effective ways you can easily make a difference to your monthly bill:
- Switch off at the wall! The Energy Saving Trust estimates switching devices off standby could save you £45 in GB and £55 in NI a year!
- Switch lights off when you leave a room! Did you know, the typical household could save almost £7 a year in GB and £9 in NI, just by switching the lights off?
- Only boil what you need! If you're making a cup of tea, only boil the amount of water you're going to drink to save energy and money. You can save around £10 a year in GB and £12 in NI.
- Are you on the right tariff? It's worth check you're on a tariff that matches your household's energy needs, if you need a little more advice, try reading our blog How to choose the best energy tariffs.
For more tips and tricks read our blog Ways to save energy at home: the facts and the fiction.
