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Beat the lag: EDF launches weekly price forecasting service for consumers

Posted May 16, 2024

A new price cap forecasting service is being launched today by EDF, helping empower consumers to make the best-informed choice for their energy tariff.

Every Tuesday, EDF will update its website with their latest projections and what Ofgem’s price cap is expected to cost for the coming year for an average household, allowing consumers to compare up-to-date costs against fixed deals in the market.

EDF’s current predictions for the UK’s energy price cap show a decrease for the upcoming Q3 2024 price cap to £1,568, with an increase throughout Autumn (Q4) and Winter (Q1) to £1,684, £1,707 respectively, and falling by £2 in Q2 2025 to £1,705[1].

Typically, price projections are published around the time Ofgem publishes the new price cap level, but this can mean customers continue comparing fixed tariffs with old data.

Since February, price cap projections for this winter have increased around 10% due to recent disruptions in Norwegian gas supplies, as well as geopolitical tensions in Gaza raising concerns about broader impacts on global energy markets.

EDF’s Wholesale Market Services experts closely monitor any changes in the market, build and maintain models to understand customer demand and renewable generation, and provide services to National Grid to help them balance the electricity system. To provide the weekly predictions, the team of experts combine market prices and their forecast of other costs using the Ofgem specified formula[2].

“The uncertainty of energy prices has highlighted the need for tools that offer consumers clear, regular clarity and guidance,” said Christopher Dalley, Wholesale Market Services Director at EDF. “Energy prices change day by day, not once a quarter, so we are proud to launch this new service which gives customers up-to-date information to help them understand whether a deal is a good or bad one, and see the potential savings they could make by switching tariffs.

"We want to make energy simpler, cheaper and cleaner so by combining our energy market and forecasting expertise, this service will support customers in making the best decisions for their household.”

The service is available to all consumers, not just EDF customers, and can be accessed here: https://www.edfenergy.com/gas-and-electricity/price-cap-predictions

 

[1] Prices based upon Ofgem’s Typical Domestic Consumption Values (TDCVs) which are now set at 2,700 kWh per annum for electricity, and 11,500 kWh per annum for gas.

[2] Our predictions are based on using Ofgem’s price cap methodology: https://www.ofgem.gov.uk/energy-policy-and-regulation/policy-and-regulatory-programmes/energy-price-cap-default-tariff-policy/energy-price-cap-default-tariff-levels to combine market prices and our forecast of other costs, to predict future quarter price cap levels. Predictions shown above are based on weekly snapshot and will be updated every Tuesday. Our prediction could rise or fall, based mostly on changes in the wholesale cost of energy for future periods.

About EDF

EDF is helping Britain achieve Net Zero by leading the transition to a cleaner, low emission, electric future and tackling climate change. It is the UK’s largest producer of low-carbon electricity(1) and supplies millions of customers with electricity and gas.

It generates low carbon electricity from five nuclear power stations and more than thirty onshore wind farms and two offshore wind farms.

EDF is leading the UK's nuclear renaissance with the construction of a new nuclear power station at Hinkley Point C, and there are advanced plans for a replica at Sizewell C in Suffolk. Hinkley Point C and Sizewell C will provide low carbon electricity to meet 14% of UK demand and power around 12 million homes.

EDF is one of the UK’s largest investors in renewables, with more than 1.5GW of renewable generation in operation and almost 14GW in planning and development across a range of technologies including onshore and offshore wind, solar and battery storage. We are constructing our largest offshore wind farm in Britain – the 450 MW Neart na Gaoithe project in Scotland.

EDF is helping its customers, both in business and at home, take their first steps to sustainably powering their lives. Whether it is buying an electric car, generating and storing electricity, selling energy back to the grid or installing a heat pump. EDF is one of the largest suppliers to British business and a leading supplier of innovative energy solutions that are helping businesses become more energy independent. In addition, the company’s energy services business, Dalkia, is one of the largest technical service providers in the UK and Ireland.

EDF is part of EDF Group, the world’s biggest electricity generator. In the UK, the company employs around 14,000 people at locations across England, Scotland, Wales and Ireland.

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