Beat the lag: EDF launches weekly price forecasting service for consumers
A new price cap forecasting service is being launched today by EDF, helping empower consumers to make the best-informed choice for their energy tariff.
Every Tuesday, EDF will update its website with their latest projections and what Ofgem’s price cap is expected to cost for the coming year for an average household, allowing consumers to compare up-to-date costs against fixed deals in the market.
EDF’s current predictions for the UK’s energy price cap show a decrease for the upcoming Q3 2024 price cap to £1,568, with an increase throughout Autumn (Q4) and Winter (Q1) to £1,684, £1,707 respectively, and falling by £2 in Q2 2025 to £1,705[1].
Typically, price projections are published around the time Ofgem publishes the new price cap level, but this can mean customers continue comparing fixed tariffs with old data.
Since February, price cap projections for this winter have increased around 10% due to recent disruptions in Norwegian gas supplies, as well as geopolitical tensions in Gaza raising concerns about broader impacts on global energy markets.
EDF’s Wholesale Market Services experts closely monitor any changes in the market, build and maintain models to understand customer demand and renewable generation, and provide services to National Grid to help them balance the electricity system. To provide the weekly predictions, the team of experts combine market prices and their forecast of other costs using the Ofgem specified formula[2].
“The uncertainty of energy prices has highlighted the need for tools that offer consumers clear, regular clarity and guidance,” said Christopher Dalley, Wholesale Market Services Director at EDF. “Energy prices change day by day, not once a quarter, so we are proud to launch this new service which gives customers up-to-date information to help them understand whether a deal is a good or bad one, and see the potential savings they could make by switching tariffs.
"We want to make energy simpler, cheaper and cleaner so by combining our energy market and forecasting expertise, this service will support customers in making the best decisions for their household.”
The service is available to all consumers, not just EDF customers, and can be accessed here: https://www.edfenergy.com/gas-and-electricity/price-cap-predictions
[1] Prices based upon Ofgem’s Typical Domestic Consumption Values (TDCVs) which are now set at 2,700 kWh per annum for electricity, and 11,500 kWh per annum for gas.
[2] Our predictions are based on using Ofgem’s price cap methodology: https://www.ofgem.gov.uk/energy-policy-and-regulation/policy-and-regulatory-programmes/energy-price-cap-default-tariff-policy/energy-price-cap-default-tariff-levels to combine market prices and our forecast of other costs, to predict future quarter price cap levels. Predictions shown above are based on weekly snapshot and will be updated every Tuesday. Our prediction could rise or fall, based mostly on changes in the wholesale cost of energy for future periods.
About EDF
EDF is driving the transition towards An Electric Britain – a secure, affordable, low-carbon future for everyone. As Britain’s biggest generator of zero carbon electricity, we are investing more than £100 million weekly in Britain’s electricity infrastructure. We supply millions of customers with electricity and help homes and businesses switch to electricity for heating, transport and industrial processes.
We operate five nuclear power stations and more than 35 onshore wind farms and three offshore wind farms. Since 2009, EDF has invested almost £9 billion in the nuclear fleet to improve reliability and extend station lifetimes. The five generating stations currently supply about 12% of the UK’s electricity demand.
EDF is building the UK's nuclear renaissance with the construction of a new nuclear power station at Hinkley Point C. We are a minority investor (12.5%) in and major supplier to a replica plant at Sizewell C in Suffolk. Hinkley Point C and Sizewell C will provide low carbon electricity to meet 14% of UK demand and power around 12 million homes. EDF Group companies Framatome and Arabelle Solutions have a presence in the UK and manufacture critical equipment such as reactor pressure vessels and turbines.
EDF is enabling its 5 million customers, both in business and at home, to choose electric solutions that save cash and carbon, whether it is buying an electric car, generating and storing electricity, selling energy back to the grid or installing solar panels or a heat pump. In 2025, EDF’s Customers business was ranked as one of the Sunday Times’s Best Place to Work.
It is also one of the UK’s leading developers of renewable energy through EDF power solutions UK and Ireland. We have more than 2GW of renewable generation in operation and over 10GW in construction, planning and development across a range of technologies including onshore and offshore wind, solar and battery storage.
We are one of the largest suppliers to British business and a leading supplier of innovative energy solutions that are helping businesses become more energy independent. In addition, the company’s energy services business, Dalkia, one of the UK and Ireland’s largest technical service providers.
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