Energy Roundup: November 2025

Welcome to the latest issue of our Energy Roundup. Each quarter, we’ll bring you all the latest news, views and insights to help you navigate the ever-changing complexities of the energy industry.

Energy Overview

UK power and gas markets

The gas market remains in a period of uncertainty as short-term fundamentals point to weaker demand, while winter risks and geopolitical factors continue to influence sentiment. Recent mild weather across Europe has slowed gas withdrawals, supporting storage levels. However, forecasts indicate a potential shift to colder conditions by late December, though confidence in these projections remains limited.

Geopolitical developments remain a key concern. Ukraine’s gas production is under threat from ongoing strikes, with up to half of its output potentially offline for much of the winter. This scenario would increase reliance on European imports, and the risk of further disruption persists until a ceasefire is reached.

On a more positive note, LNG supply is expected to ramp up through 2027, which could ease future tightness. Still, all eyes are on new Qatari projects to deliver on time.

To stay informed on the power market movements, join James Chaplin, Senior Manager of Curve Trading, for his quarterly webinars. Look out for the 2026 series by following us on LinkedIn or visiting our TalkPower Events Page

A brief outlook of non-energy costs

An Update on TNUoS

NESO published its latest 5-Year TNUoS tariff forecast on 1^st September. This follows Ofgem’s draft decision in July on the framework for the new TNUoS price control, RIIO-T3, set to run from April 2026 to March 2031. The forecast shows significant increases in TNUoS tariffs in both the short and long term. The previous view of allowed revenue in the April 2026 year was c. £6.2bn and this has now increased substantially to c. £8.9bn. This is equivalent to an increase of c. £11/MWh if recovered volumetrically over national demand.

The vast majority of TNUoS revenue is recovered as a fixed pence per site per day charge via the TNUoS Demand Residual (TDR) tariff. The newly forecast April 2026 TDR rate, the equivalent of c. £30.5/MWh is about double the current April 2025 rate (c. £15.7/MWh). These revenue increases grow further in later years, with an equivalent volumetric charge from the TDR tariff of c. £43/MWh by 2030/31, almost triple today’s level in nominal terms.

There is still a high degree of uncertainty for TNUoS from April 2026.

The next milestone will be Ofgem’s final decision (or determination) due in Q4 this year, where many of the financial parameters that underpin TNUoS levels will be set. Final tariffs for April 2026 will then be published by NESO by the end of January 2026.

An Update on Nuclear RAB

On 12^th August the initial levy rate (ILR) for the nuclear Regulated Asset Base (RAB) scheme was announced at c. £3.45/MWh for November and December 2025. This followed the final investment decision for the new Sizewell C nuclear plant in late July. The levy is also forecast to recover a similar annualised amount of revenue (c. £1bn/year) from suppliers in 2026/27. This means expected supplier charge rates of ~£3.50/MWh in winters and ~£4.50/MWh in summers going forwards.

During the expected ten-year construction phase of the project the annual allowed revenue will be recovered from suppliers. Once operational, only the difference between the allowed revenue and the market revenue achieved by the plant will be recovered from suppliers, similarly to the CfD scheme.

An Update on the Renewable Obligation (RO) Scheme

At the end of September, the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (DESNZ) confirmed the final obligation level for the 2026/27 year Renewable Obligation (RO) scheme. The level has been set at 0.472 ROCs/MWh for GB and 0.184 ROCs/MWh for NI. This is considerably lower than the previous year’s obligation level of 0.493 ROCs/MWh, due to DESNZ’s assumptions of a 4.4% increase in national electricity demand and a decrease in wind and solar load factors compared to previous years.

This is good news for consumer costs, with the RO supplier charge for the 2026/27 year now expected to stay at around £33/MWh rather than increase in line with RPI inflation as is normally expected. The final 2026/27 rate will be confirmed in February 2026 once the outturn RPI inflation rate for 2025 is known.

For more information, sign up for our next Monitor Report (NECs explained) webinar on Wednesday 16 December at 11 am.
Join us as we dive deeper into Monitor, our quarterly report covering non-energy costs. In this webinar, our experts will share more detailed updates on how the current non-energy costs impact businesses.
Register here

Energy In The News

Energy Takes Centre Stage at Party Conferences

Energy dominated discussions across this year’s party conference season, with major announcements signalling how different parties plan to shape the UK’s energy future. As COP30 looms we delve into the recent party conferences and what the political parties are discussing.

At a glance; Labour reinforced its Clean Power 2030 vision, pledging 400,000 jobs and a permanent ban on fracking. Conservatives outlined a policy reset, including plans to repeal the Climate Change Act, maximize North Sea extraction, and reassess renewables. Liberal Democrats backed Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) and proposed ambitious reforms such as an Energy Security Bank and decoupling electricity prices from gas. Meanwhile, Reform UK reinforced its anti-net zero stance, calling for the repeal of the Climate Change Act, the abolition of DESNZ and fast-tracking fossil fuel extraction.

EDF’s Corporate Affairs Team were actively involved throughout, hosting panels on unlocking homegrown energy potential and engaging with stakeholders on energy security, affordability, and the role of nuclear power.

Read the full roundup of key energy announcements and EDF’s involvement in this article here

The British Industrial Competitiveness Scheme (BICS) - what this initiative means for businesses

As part of the UK’s Modern Industrial Strategy, the government unveiled the British Industrial Competitiveness Scheme (BICS) in the summer of 2025. This initiative is aimed at addressing the growing concerns over high electricity costs for UK industries. The scheme is designed to bring the cost of electricity in Great Britain more in line with other major European economies, making UK businesses more competitive on the global stage.

From 2027 to 2030, the scheme is expected to exempt some manufacturers from paying the costs of the Renewables Obligation, Feed-in Tariffs and the Capacity Market. The government described those expected to be eligible as: manufacturing electricity-intensive frontier industries in the IS-8. For those businesses exempt it should reduce costs by approximately £35-40/MWh.

A consultation is due to be published by the Department for Business and Trade before the end of November, it will be available on the official UK government website (gov.uk) under ‘consultations’(https://www.gov.uk/government/consultations) - here businesses can provide their response to the scheme.

We’ll keep you informed on further developments and share further details once they’re available.

The Future of Non-Half-Hourly Meter Settlement in the MHHS Era

Market-wide Half-Hourly Settlement (MHHS) is set to transform how electricity consumption is measured and billed, bringing greater accuracy and efficiency to the UK energy market. For businesses currently using non-half-hourly (NHH) meters, this means a significant shift toward more granular data collection, enabling better cost management and access to flexible tariffs.

The migration process is already underway, with key milestones reached in October 2025 and all eligible meters expected to move to half-hourly settlement by May 2027. While this transition offers opportunities for smarter energy strategies and potential savings, businesses should prepare for changes in metering technology, billing structures, and data requirements.

Want to know what this means for your business and how to prepare?
Read the full blog here for detailed timelines, key milestones, and practical steps to get ready.

Consultation Response: Proposed Uplift to the Network Charging Compensation Scheme for Energy Intensive Industries (EIIs)

Following substantial feedback from a variety of industry stakeholders, including EDF, the Government have confirmed that the planned NCC uplift from 60% to 90% will now take effect from April 2026. EIIs will continue to receive this benefit retrospectively.

The Government have confirmed that the costs of the NCC Scheme will continue to be recovered via the EII Support Levy (ESL) with an uplift now applying from April 2027.

The government's full response can be found here: Government’s response to the consultation on increasing EII support via the Network Charging Compensation scheme (NCC) from 60% to 90%.

GHG Protocol Consultation: Updates on October 2025 Public Consultation

The Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Protocol is undergoing a major overhaul of its corporate standards and guidance for scope 2 emissions, representing one of the most significant updates since their original release. This transformation will redefine how organisations measure, manage and report greenhouse gas emissions across their operations and value chains. If approved, the new guidance is anticipated to come into effect in late 2027, with phased implementation over multiple years.

As outlined in the October 2025 public consultation, proposed updates include:

Continue with dual reporting (location-based and market-based methods) but with changes designed to ensure that both methods reflect that the actual emissions from electricity generation processes are physically connected to the business’ reporting value chain
Introducing hourly or sub-hourly matching between energy consumption and renewable generation, to reflect real-time grid conditions
Adding deliverability requirements to ensure renewable energy certificates represent electricity that is physically deliverable to the reporting organisation’s grid
Tightening market-based accounting rules, with clearer eligibility criteria for renewable energy instruments and emission factors;
Incorporating transition mechanisms such as phased implementation, simplified approaches for smaller organisations, and provisions for legacy contracts.

These revisions, open for consultation until 19 December 2025, reflect growing global expectations for greater accuracy, transparency and consistency in corporate greenhouse gas disclosures.

A view from Matt Yeoman and Ismahan Kellou on Flexibility

From Barriers to Benefits: The Case for Flexibility

Matt Yeoman, Manager of Key Strategic Sector for Large Business at EDF Business Solutions and Ismahan Kellou, Senior Manager of Home and Business Flex Products, Wholesale Market Services, cover one of the current most talked about energy topics in the UK landscape - flexibility.

More than just a way to save on costs, flexibility helps businesses strengthen resilience, open up new revenue opportunities and accelerate progress towards a more sustainable future.

Our latest podcast discussed real world challenges and opportunities of flexibility, from financial and technical barriers to cultural change, and how organisations can take their first steps into this transformative space.